Happy Derby Day!

If Afleet Alex gets a good trip in the Derby, he should be able to win. I don't care what people say about Bellamy Road. Sure, he won the Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths, but the competition he raced against was nonexistent. The last time Bellamy Road ran a race where he was challenged, he crashed and burned. I believe he will do the same today.

I'll probably end up being wrong, but I predict:

1st Alfeet Alex
2nd Bandini
3rd High Fly

I have quite a bit of money down on the Derby, but it's spread between a few horses, so I'm not likely to win much if one of the horses wins. Unless, of course, one of my long shots stages a major upset and wins the Derby. Hah.

Allowance race, 3-years-old & Up
Win: Mighty Military
Place: Florida Keys
Show: Cool Conductor

That would be the first race today. (Cool Conductor won the race, but he got disqualified to third. For no reason, might I add. Florida Keys bumped into Mighty Military and I guess people think if that hadn't happened, Mighty Military would have won. I don't think so - Cool Conductor was gone, gone, gone. So they disqualified Cool Conductor and said Mighty Military won the race.)

Then the bigger Derby Day races:

Derby Day Post Times - CST Time

12:21 P.M. Chuchill Downs Handicap
1:11 P.M. Three Chimneys Juvenile
2:03 P.M. WinnerComm Turf Mile
2:57 P.M. Humana Distaff
3:52 P.M. Woodford Reserve Turf
5:04 P.M. Kentucky Derby

That's all for now.

Ho hum..

Churchill Downs Handicap
Win: Battle Won
Place: Level Playingfield
Show: Pomeroy

The only reason Spanish Chestnut is in the Derby is to act as the rabbit. He has a lot of speed in the beginning, so he was entered to hopefully wear out Bellamy Road. That's mostly so Bandini has a good shot at winning. I'd laugh my ass off if Spanish Chestnut somehow managed to win. Ha.

This horse is impressive.

Three Chimneys Juvenile
Win: Half Ours
Place: High Adventure
Show: Beacon Shine

The race was won in 57.07 - a new record.

I was sitting here thinking to myself as I watched this race. Then I realized what I was thinking about was absolutely crazy to be thinking about this early. But I don't mind sounding crazy every now and then, so here it is. Even before this year's Derby is run, I will take a stab at predicting next year's Derby winner - Half Ours. Hah.

More...

Comp USA Turf Mile
Win: Miss Terrible
Place: Sand Springs
Show: Shaconage

And more..

Humana Distaff
Win: My Trusty Cat
Place: Molto Vita
Show: Puxa Saco

Posts

1. Sort It Out
2. Andromeda's Hero
3. Sun King
4. Noble Causeway
5. Coin Silver
6. High Limit
7. Flower Alley
8. Greater Good
9. Greeley's Galaxy
10. Giacomo
11. High Fly
12. Afleet Alex
13. Spanish Chestnut
14. Wilko
15. Bandini
16. Bellamy Road
17. Don't Get Mad
18. Closing Argument
19. Going Wild
20. Buzzards Bay

The list below which list the post position of the winners since 1900, 105 years, the winning percent by quadrant is:

Post 1-5, 48.50%
Post 6-10, 33.33%
Post 11-15, 13.33%
Post 16-20, 4.84%

Each post with how many have won from that post and the last horse to win from that post:

1. 12 - Ferdinand (1986)
2. 9 - Affirmed (1978)
3. 8 - Real Quiet (1998)
4. 10 - Seattle Slew (1977)
5. 12 - Funny Cide (2003)
6. 7 - Sea Hero (1993)
7. 7 - Sea Colony (1981)
8. 8 - Go For Gin (1994)
9. 4 - Riva Ridge (1972)
10. 9 - Lil E. Tee (1992)
11. 3 - Winning Colors (1988)
12. 3 - Cannonero II (1971)
13. 3 - Forward Pass (1968)
14. 2 - Carry Back (1961)
15. 3 - Smarty Jones (2004)
16. 3 - Monarchos (2001)
17. 0
18. 1 - Gato Del Sol (1982)
19. 0
20. 1 - Clyde Van Dusen (1929)

I think it is safe to say Buzzards Bay will not win the Derby along with Don't Get Mad and Going Wild. Although, I do have money on Going Wild, but that is only because he is a Lucas horse.

Another one

Woodford Reserve Turf
Win: America Alive
Place: Meteor Alive
Show: Quest Star

Afleet Alex is the feel good story for this year's Derby.

Not only can he run, he writes his own diary too.
AfleetAlex.com

Greeley's Galaxy was never run as a 2-year-old, so therefore he will not win.

Last post before the Derby

Kentucky Derby Taboos
Horses that never won a race if..

2 starts as a 3-year-old
No starts as a 2-year-old
BC Juvenile winner
Dosage over 4
Never earned 100 Beyer figure
4 life time starts
5 weeks off
Beaten 4 lengths last start

Bandini and Afleet Alex are the only two horses in the 20 horse field that don't fall into at least one of those categories. So is this an indication of who will win?

Also no horse that has earned $1 million or more prior to the Kentucky Derby has won the Derby.

I believe one of the few horses I've money on will win. I have no doubt about it - my luck seems to be great when it comes to horses. I just hope I manage to win more than I've bet. That is my only worry. *shrugs*

Soon the call for riders up.

Last Derby Post

Order of finish

1. Giacomo
2. Closing Argument
3. Afleet Alex
4. Don't Get Mad
5. Buzzards Bay
6. Wilko
7. Bellamy Road
8. Andromeda's Hero
9. Flower Alley
10. High Fly
11. Greeley's Galaxy
12. Coin Silver
13. Greater Good
14. Noble Causeway
15. Sun King
16. Spanish Chestnut
17. Sort It Out
18. Going Wild
19. Bandini
20. High Limit

Bandini - I'm sure was a big disappointment.